Tasmanian Labor leader Dean Winter finds himself navigating a complex political landscape after the recent election, which has left his party with a challenging path to governance. Despite leading Labor to a significant electoral outcome, Winter maintains that he is prepared to govern if Jeremy Rockliff, the current Premier, is unable to secure adequate support from crossbenchers.
Winter has initiated discussions with four independents expected to be elected: Peter George and David O’Byrne in Franklin, along with Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland in Clark. Additionally, he is engaging with Carlo Di Falco, a candidate from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party, who is currently leading for a final seat in Braddon. Even if Winter manages to secure support from these independents, Labor would still fall short with only 16 MPs, lacking the 18 seats necessary for a majority government.
Stalemate with the Greens
To surpass this threshold, Labor will require the confidence and supply support of the Greens. However, Winter has firmly stated that he will not negotiate a deal with them. “We won’t be doing deals with the Greens,” he declared. “We support traditional industries like forestry, mining, and aquaculture.” This uncompromising stance creates a precarious situation for Winter, who seeks support from the Greens while refusing to provide any policy concessions.
The need for a stable government is particularly pressing given the backdrop of three consecutive early elections, the last occurring nearly three years ahead of schedule following a no-confidence motion against Rockliff. Politicians are acutely aware that forming a new government must avoid the pitfalls that could lead to another early election.
Despite a disappointing electoral performance—Labor garnered just 25.9 percent of the primary vote, a decline of 3.1 percent from the previous election—Winter is exploring pathways to power. His personal vote fell short of a quota in Franklin, trailing behind both George and Liberal candidate Eric Abetz. In contrast, Rockliff achieved over two quotas in Braddon, underscoring the disparity in their electoral fortunes.
Limited Options Ahead
Winter’s refusal to engage in negotiations with the Greens restricts his options significantly. He is keen to portray himself as a leader who reluctantly accepts the political reality that cooperation is necessary to avoid another election. He has suggested that Rockliff may struggle to garner the support of crossbenchers who had previously expressed no confidence in him.
If Rockliff is unable to command a majority, there are two potential scenarios for Labor’s ascension to power. One involves the Governor calling for a vote of confidence, allowing Rockliff to test his support in Parliament. Should he fail, a similar vote could be held for a minority government led by Winter. Alternatively, Rockliff’s government might be re-commissioned without a confidence vote, necessitating a no-confidence motion backed by a majority of MPs, including Labor and the Greens.
While Winter acknowledges the necessity for cooperation within the new Parliament, he seems hesitant to consider the implications of a second no-confidence motion against a Premier within mere months of their election. This reality could soon pose a significant test for Winter’s leadership and his ability to negotiate effectively with the crossbench.
In summary, Dean Winter faces a critical juncture as he attempts to navigate the political landscape of Tasmania. His challenges are compounded by a lack of electoral mandate and a firm refusal to engage with the Greens, leaving Labor in a precarious position as they seek to form a stable government in the coming days.
