Recent data reveals that the rural areas of the Hunter region in Australia are experiencing higher birth rates compared to the urban centers. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, two-thirds of the local government areas in the Hunter recorded birth rates below two births per woman aged 15 to 49 years in 2024. Notably, only Cessnock, Muswellbrook, and Singleton achieved a birth rate of two or more.
The city of Newcastle had the lowest fertility rate in the Hunter at just 1.43 births per woman, which is below the state average of 1.58. This trend reflects a broader national pattern where urban areas generally report lower birth rates than their regional counterparts. The city of Sydney recorded the lowest fertility rate in the state at 0.73.
Factors Behind Rising Fertility Rates in the Hunter
The data indicates a consistent trend over the past decade, as rural and regional areas in Australia have maintained higher birth rates. Yet, they too are experiencing a decline. John Mackenzie from the University of Newcastle’s Institute for Regional Futures highlighted that factors such as housing affordability and cost-of-living pressures are more favorable in regional areas, making them attractive for young families.
Dr. Mackenzie noted, “Housing costs and cost-of-living pressures, which are front of mind for young parents, tend to be lower in regional areas when compared to the cities.” He added that the availability of informal childcare provided by extended family networks in these areas significantly supports working parents.
Muswellbrook, for instance, boasts the highest fertility rate in the Hunter at 2.13, despite a decrease from 2.42 in 2013. This decline comes amid ongoing efforts to restore maternity services in the Upper Hunter town.
Demographic Shifts and Migration Trends
The demographic changes in the Hunter region are also noteworthy. According to the Regional Movers Index, Lake Macquarie experienced the third-largest level of net internal migration to regional Australia in the 12 months leading up to March 2025, while Maitland ranked fifth.
Dr. Mackenzie explained that the new fertility data suggests a trend where parents are opting to have children later in life, paralleling the migration of individuals from urban to rural areas. “Increasingly, mid-career professionals and workers are making the decision to leave cities to raise families, seeking affordability, amenity, and community,” he said.
This shift indicates that the higher birth rates in rural regions are appealing to family-forming households, particularly those consisting of adults in their 30s and 40s.
The findings underscore the importance of understanding regional dynamics in population growth, particularly as urbanization continues to influence family planning decisions across Australia.
