The Victorian Liberal Party has undergone a significant leadership change, appointing Jess Wilson as the new leader following the removal of Brad Battin. With just over a year until the next election, analysts suggest that shifting focus from crime to core issues like cost of living and health could enhance the party’s prospects against the incumbent Labor government.
Ms. Wilson, a first-term Member of Parliament and the first woman to lead the Victorian Liberals, aims to challenge Labor, which has held power for three consecutive terms. Her campaign will prioritize pressing topics such as budget debt, crime, health, and home ownership, as the party seeks to reclaim its influence in the political landscape.
Strategic Shift in Campaign Focus
Election analyst Ben Raue believes that Ms. Wilson’s approach will differ significantly from her predecessor, who focused heavily on crime during his brief tenure. “They’re not going to stop banging on about crime,” Raue noted, highlighting the perception of a crime crisis as a potential vulnerability for the Labor government. Despite this, he emphasized that the party must also address broader concerns that resonate with voters.
Crime rates in Victoria have risen nearly 16 percent in the past year, a factor that Ms. Wilson may leverage to position her party as a viable alternative. Raue suggested that delegating more responsibilities to shadow ministers could strengthen the party’s stance on state crime rates, ensuring they remain a focal point in the upcoming election.
However, fellow analyst Kevin Bonham cautioned against an overemphasis on crime. “You need to be attacking the government on core things that voters are worried about,” he stated. “Law and order politics, even in times of heightened concern, only motivates a relatively small number of voters.”
Challenges Ahead for the Coalition
Polls indicate that support for the Victorian opposition has waned, although some surveys show the coalition narrowly ahead of Labor. Both analysts pointed out that leadership changes are not uncommon in the lead-up to elections, especially in what is often termed the “killing season” for political parties.
Dr. Bonham remarked, “You want to give a leader a decent run into the election, a reasonable amount of time to establish themselves and iron out any problems.” The challenge remains for Ms. Wilson to navigate this transitional period effectively and to establish her leadership credibility.
While her leadership may appeal to younger voters and women—demographics with which the Liberals have struggled—Raue noted the need for caution regarding the party’s right flank. Polls suggest that One Nation is gaining traction nationally, potentially posing a challenge to the Liberals in Victoria.
“Sometimes just having a female leader makes people think you’re more progressive, even when you’re not,” Raue commented, underscoring the complexities of voter perception.
To form a majority government in the 88-seat Parliament, the Victorian coalition will need to secure at least 17 additional seats. This significant hurdle reflects the broader challenges facing the party as it attempts to regain its footing after years of being out of power.
As the Victorian Liberals embark on this pivotal journey, the effectiveness of their strategic shift will be closely monitored, with the next election on the horizon in November 2025. The path forward requires not only a clear message but also a robust response to the pressing issues that matter most to voters.
