Concerns about the United Kingdom’s gas security have intensified, prompting calls for increased domestic gas production. Chris O’Shea, the CEO of Centrica, which operates British Gas, criticized the government for neglecting a significant gas report coinciding with the budget announcement. He highlighted the report’s critical insights into the future of the U.K.’s gas supply, which is vital for consumers.
On budget day, the National Energy System Operator (Neso) released a comprehensive 50-page report assessing the gas supply’s availability, reliability, and deliverability for Great Britain’s National Gas transmission network. The report indicated that while gas supply should meet demand under normal seasonal conditions, there is a rising risk of shortages if key infrastructure fails.
The report warns of a potential shortfall in gas supply across various demand scenarios for the years 2030 and 2035. Specifically, it states, “In the unlikely event of the loss of the single largest piece of gas infrastructure, gas supply falls short of demand for all pathways in 2030-31.” This scenario could necessitate halting gas supplies to factories and power plants, potentially leaving consumers without heating.
At the center of this concern is the 725-mile Langeled pipeline, which connects the U.K. to Norway. While the likelihood of this infrastructure failing is considered low, O’Shea pointed out the threat of sabotage. If the pipeline were damaged, repairs could take weeks or months, exacerbating the risk to the U.K.’s gas supply.
In response to the Neso report, Michael Shanks, the U.K.’s energy minister, pledged to take “whatever it takes” to secure gas supplies. Nonetheless, the report does not provide immediate solutions. The ongoing windfall tax on North Sea gas production could further complicate the U.K.’s energy landscape, increasing reliance on Norwegian imports.
Currently, the U.K. has only three LNG import terminals, which are costly to operate. Plans to expand interconnector capacity with Norway are not feasible in the short term. O’Leary suggested that investments in developing onshore gas storage, such as salt caverns, could be beneficial. He emphasized that enhancing renewable energy capacity alone may not suffice, especially if a prolonged cold spell occurs, limiting solar and wind power generation.
With approximately 85 percent of the U.K.’s 30 million homes depending on gas for heating and cooking, transitioning to renewable alternatives is a long-term goal that will take decades. Deborah Petterson, Neso’s Director of Resilience and Emergency Management, stated, “By conducting this analysis, we can identify emerging risks early and, crucially, in time for mitigations to be put in place.” She emphasized the need for a combination of measures to address these risks effectively.
Despite the findings, studies from Uplift, a U.K.-based nonprofit research organization, indicate that new gas drilling initiatives may not significantly enhance energy security. Their research suggests that even with new fields developed, the U.K. will be almost fully reliant on gas imports by 2050. Furthermore, increased gas production could jeopardize the U.K.’s climate targets.
While addressing gas supply challenges is crucial for maintaining energy security, it is essential that any measures taken are evaluated within the broader context of the U.K.’s energy landscape. The U.K. may not be ready to fully replace gas supplies with renewable sources in the event of a sudden disruption. Nonetheless, a temporary reliance on larger gas imports or utilizing gas storage facilities could alleviate pressure on the current system as the country navigates its energy future.
