Myanmar’s military has escalated military operations nationwide as the country prepares for elections widely criticized as illegitimate. Scheduled to commence on October 8, 2023, this initial phase of voting marks the beginning of a multi-stage electoral process, extending through late January 2024. The ruling junta is attempting to reestablish its legitimacy following four years of civil conflict and international isolation.
These elections will occur without the participation of major opposition parties, including the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by jailed Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. The exclusion of significant political players raises serious questions about the credibility of the electoral process, especially amid ongoing violence and reports of airstrikes targeting civilian areas.
Analysts suggest that the military’s recent territorial gains can be attributed to several factors. The introduction of forced conscription earlier this year has reportedly allowed the military to recruit approximately 80,000 new troops. This law, enacted in February 2024, has helped alleviate chronic personnel shortages that had hampered the military’s effectiveness in maintaining control over captured territories.
Strategic Military Gains Amidst Ongoing Conflict
The military’s resurgence has been characterized by the successful recapture of strategically important areas. According to Morgan Michaels, a conflict analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, “The military is regaining momentum and retaking strategically important areas.” This renewed strength could allow the junta to consolidate its position following the elections, which are designed to enhance its standing on the international stage.
The army has also benefitted from advanced weaponry supplied by Russia and China, including helicopters and fighter jets. These enhancements have enabled the military to conduct operations against opposition forces with considerably less resistance, remarked Adam Simpson, a professor at the University of Adelaide. Since the junta seized power in February 2021, it has managed to retain control over major urban centers, including Yangon, Mandalay, and the capital, Naypyidaw.
Despite facing substantial challenges, including a significant offensive in October 2023 by the Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of ethnic militias, the military has sought to regain ground. This coalition’s strikes targeted towns and key supply routes along the border with China, indicating the ongoing volatility of the situation.
China has recently played a more proactive role, mediating between the military and various armed groups, pushing for the withdrawal of some factions from territories in Shan State. This diplomatic pressure has been crucial in shaping the current dynamics, as negotiations continue amid persistent fighting.
Continued Turmoil and Humanitarian Concerns
Fighting remains intense in various regions, particularly in Rakhine State, where the Arakan Army now controls most of the territory, including the entire border with Bangladesh. This area is vital for infrastructure projects backed by China. The ongoing conflict raises urgent humanitarian concerns as civilian casualties and displacements increase.
The elections, occurring against this backdrop of violence and instability, are expected to further exacerbate tensions. Without the participation of significant opposition parties, the military’s claims of a democratic process are likely to face widespread skepticism among both local and international observers.
As Myanmar moves closer to the ballot, the implications of the military’s actions—and the community’s response—remain uncertain. The ongoing conflict underscores the fragility of the situation, with prospects for peace and stability appearing increasingly distant.
