The Centre for Population has released its 2025 Population Statement, providing critical insights into the demographic trends shaping Australia’s future. The document outlines significant changes in population dynamics and offers projections that will inform government policy aimed at strengthening the economy and improving living standards.
A key highlight of the statement is the adjustment in net overseas migration figures, which are now forecasted to be lower than previously anticipated for 2024-25. The new estimate indicates that net overseas migration will be approximately 260,000 in 2025-26, nearly half of the peak recorded following the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend is expected to continue, with a gradual decline over the ensuing years.
Population Growth and Ageing Trends
Population growth in Australia is projected to decelerate to 1.3 percent in 2025-26 and further to 1.2 percent from 2026-27 onward. This marks a significant decrease from the average growth rate of 1.4 percent experienced during the 2010s. A critical factor contributing to this slowdown is population ageing. The median age of the population is expected to reach 40 years within the next decade and rise to 43.7 years by 2065-66.
In terms of birth rates, projections indicate a potential record low for Australia in 2025-26. In response, the Albanese Government is implementing initiatives aimed at alleviating pressures on families. Measures include the introduction of a 3 Day Guarantee for early childhood education and care, as well as enhancements to paid parental leave.
Economic Implications and Future Outlook
The government has highlighted the progress made in recent years, including efforts to build more homes, strengthen migration settings, invest in skills, and address the rising cost of living for Australians. Despite these advances, officials acknowledge that further work is necessary to ensure continued improvement in the economy.
The insights derived from the 2025 Population Statement will guide the government’s future policies and strategies, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to addressing the challenges posed by demographic shifts. The full statement and detailed population projections are available on the Centre for Population website.
